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Critics argue that the declining energy intensity of China’s economy undermines the index. But that is not quite true. As long as electricity follows an identifiable trend, deviations from the trend are revealing about economic upturns and downturns. What really broke the Li Keqiang index was the covid-19 pandemic. The decline in retail sales, air travel and the property market was far more dramatic than the slowdown in industry, electricity use or rail freight. Meanwhile, m2 grew quickly at the end of last year as people hoarded cash.

What are the alternatives? Those sceptical of China’s data yearn to escape its statistical system altogether. Perhaps the brightness of lights at night, recorded by satellites, could offer a truly independent guide to growth? But this measure has its own problems. The newer satellites do not have a long track record and the older ones struggled to distinguish between the bright and very bright lights of cities. Coverage is also patchy from month to month.

Mr Pinkovskiy and his co-authors have instead used night-time lights not as a direct measure of growth, but as a way to adjudicate between other potential proxies. If the contenders are good at tracking night-time lights, they should be good at tracking growth, too. The authors’ investigations suggest that in addition to lending (or m2), electricity and (to a lesser degree) rail freight, retail sales are a useful indicator. Adding them would certainly have made a difference during the pandemic.

No diplomatic cable has yet come to light revealing the indicators favoured by China’s probable new prime minister, Li Qiang. He was previously party chief of Shanghai, where services account for about three-quarters of gdp. The equivalent figure in rust-belt Liaoning was only 40% when Li Keqiang first revealed the ingredients of the index named after him. Safe to say, then, any “Li Qiang index” will not neglect the services sector of China’s vastly altered economy. ■